UKASF

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A very deep area of LOW pressure in the north Atlantic, just south of Iceland, will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom.

An occluded front crosses west-to-east across the whole of the country between 0z-18z. Intense downpours are likely to give high rainfall totals in western parts in particularly, perhaps causing local flooding when combined with rapid snowmelt. Incidentally, evaporative cooling along the front combined with cold surface temperatures could give a spell of sleet and wet snow event to lower levels across eastern and northern Britain during its track across the country.

Most models this afternoon appear to be keen to develop a trough/band of intense showers immediately behind the occlusion which will move eastwards across southern counties of England and Wales during daylight hours. Conditions appear to be slightly favourable for the chance of eletrical activity, though the risk remains quite low and rapidly decreases upon exiting the southeast during the afternoon.

Further showers, with possible electrification, are likely to affect the English Channel and Channel Islands during the evening hours.

Western parts of Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland will be plagued by numerous showers during the late afternoon and evening hours, but the cloud heights are not expected to be favourable for eletrical activity, until the end of this forecast period at least.