UKASF >>Storm >> Forecast

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-11-27 21:47:00
Valid: 2009-11-28 00:00:00 - 2009-11-28 23:59:00

Regions Affected
Southern England, western Ireland, western Scotland and Northern Isles (all of the UK is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure will be situated over the United Kingdom on Saturday, dominating the weather. Two main centres will pass over England/Wales during the forecast period, providing convective activity in some areas.

A cold and occluded front crosses England and Wales between 0z-15z. Electrical activity is possible along the cold front as it moves over southern and southeastern England. There appears to be a significant risk of a weak-moderate tornado to develop in southern England during the cold front's passage due to the favourable conditions present.

A weak ridge then follows the first depression, preventing any convection across England and Wales during the afternoon. However, the next depression is expected to move into southern England by the end of the forecast period.

There still remains some differences between the models in it's exact track, but current thinking is the triple-point will be in the eastern English Channel by the end of this forecast period. There appears to be a significant risk of convective activity with this system, particularly around the triple point where conditions appear to be favourable for a weak-moderate tornado development.

Scattered showers with isolated eletrical activity will affect western Scotland, the Northern Isles and western Ireland for most of the forecast period.