UKASF

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Friday's story continues into Saturday... A very deep complex area of LOW pressure moves northeastwards across the United Kingdom, dominating the weather.

The initial cold front will move eastwards during the early hours, posing a risk of embedded thunderstorms and subsequently a threat of a moderate-intensity tornado. Severe winds will also affect southern UK until the evening hours, with a risk of gusts up to 80mph which may cause structural damage, and transport & power disruption.

Behind the cold front, numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, particularly near western and southern coasts due to the differences between sea surface and land temperatures. Current thinking is the most likely area on the forecast map to see severe convection will be in the English Channel and the adjacent coastlines (southern England/northern France).

An occlusion moves eastwards across England and Wales during daylight hours, clearing by mid-afternoon. Indications are that convective activity may occur along this front, and may benefit from the favourable conditions for a moderate-intensity tornado, particularly in the counties bordering the south coast.

Further showers and local thunderstorms will plague the south and west coasts, at times moving inland into southern England, during the evening and night hours. This forecast may be updated if necessary during Saturday due to the complex setup.