UKASF

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Two main and deep areas of LOW pressure, one to the northwest and one to the southwest of the UK, will dominate the weather on Friday. The cold front will clear eastwards from eastern England at the very start of this forecast period, with a risk of a tornado across the far southeast. This front will linger along the English Channel for much of the daylight hours, before moving back north again over England and Wales during the afternoon and evening hours as a new depression approaches.

The main timeframe for convective activity will be the late afternoon, evening and night hours both along the cold front of the approaching depression and also behind in the much more unstable airmass. The cold front poses a risk of embedded cells over Southwest England and Wales between 18z-00z, and also a risk of a moderate tornado and severe wind gusts. This then shifts eastwards after the expiry of this forecast period.

Behind the cold front, numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect Ireland and western coasts of England and Wales, as a result in the difference between land and sea surface temperatures. There appears to be a risk of a tornado if cells become organized.

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will also affect western Scotland and the Northern Isles mainly during daylight hours. This forecast may be updated if necessary during Friday due to the complex setup.