Storm Update Issued: 2009-05-25 06:04:00
Valid: 2009-05-24 23:00:00 - 2009-05-24 23:00:00

Regions Affected
SOUTHEAST ENGLAND, EAST ANGLIA, The Midlands, Central Southern England and The West Country (Wales, SW England & Northern England are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis
An MCS originating from Biscay is much earlier arriving and as a result much further east than forecast. It is benefiting from the moisture plume established across France, and may persist for another hour or so, but the cold Channel is expected to kill most if not all electrical activity as its way further north across CS & SE England this morning. However this will increase cloud cover across much of southern UK, which may seriously hamper further convection, and is likely to reduce the maximum temperatures by 2-3°C. Still, if enough breaks in the cloud do develop then scattered thunderstorms may develop this evening, especially across the Southeast which may then merge into another MCS as it moves across East Anglia, exiting into the North Sea during the early hours. There is also a risk of further storms clipping the southeast corner and coastal East Anglia later in the night, though this risk is somewhat uncertain. Given the very favourable environment for thunderstorm development, storms may persist for much of the night (if they develop) and may turn locally severe, most likely across the South East/East Anglia. Most of the severe storms will be across NE France and Benelux, but there is a risk of supercellular development, which may allow large hail and a moderate tornado to develop should this occur. This will need careful monitoring throughout the rest of the day and further updates are likely given the uncertainties that still exist.